Heavy rains continue over southern Florida Friday night as Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves slowly over the Gulf of Mexico, but the system might not develop into an organized tropical storm until after it passes through Florida.
One of the first outer bands from the system approached coastal Collier County mid-morning and was expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the area, according to the National Weather Service Miami.
The storm continues to linger just below the threshold of becoming the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and strengthen slightly late this weekend and early next week over the western Atlantic, according to the 11 pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center. A system becomes a tropical storm once sustained winds reach 39 mph.
No change in status or strength is expected before the disturbance moves across Florida. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday.
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The system, currently a tropical rainstorm with tropical storm-force winds, will organize slowly and is likely to become Tropical Storm Alex over the waters surrounding Florida or, perhaps, right over the Sunshine State itself, according to AccuWeather.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 11 pm June 3:
Potential Tropical Cyclone One
- Location: 185 miles southwest of Fort Myers
- Max wind speed: 40mph
- Direction: northeast at 12 mph
- Next advisory: 2 am
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Will the system strengthen into Tropical Storm Alex?
Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph, with higher gusts.
No change in status or strength is expected before the disturbance moves across Florida, but the system is expected to develop a well-defined center and strengthen slightly late this weekend and early next week over the western Atlantic.
When is the tropical storm expected to reach Florida?
The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph.
On the forecast track, the system should move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday.
Depending on how quickly the storm strengthens, minor coastal flooding may develop Friday and continue Saturday across Florida and Keys, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Much of the rain is ahead of the center. As it crosses the state, weather may improve significantly Saturday afternoon in southwestern Florida. Central and southern counties should be mainly dry, sunny and warm on Sunday.
What will be the impact of the tropical system on Florida?
Heavy rain will begin to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through Saturday, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday.
The Hurricane Center is projecting 4 to 8 inches of rain across Central and South Florida. Some areas across South Florida and the Keys could receive 12 inches.
AccuWeather forecasters projected higher rainfall.
An area from the Keys to the Everglades, along with the Miami area is likely to receive 8 to 12 inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches. Much of that rain may fall in 24 hours and could cause street and highway flooding, AccuWeather said.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida tonight and on Saturday.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida beginning tonight and continuing through Saturday.
The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
Areas under tropical storm watches or warnings
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay
- West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card Sound Bridge
- East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge *
- Lake Okeechobee
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque
- Northwestern Bahamas
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
Key messages issued by Hurricane Center about Potential Tropical Cyclone One
- Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
- Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba today and tonight.
Track Potential Tropical Cyclone One on radar
Tracking the tropics in real time:
These graphics, which update automatically, show you activity in the tropics in real time:
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