DC-area forecast: Stormy start today, mostly muggy through Friday

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7:20 am — Showers approaching from northwest, but still nothing concerning

Looking at radar to the northwest as well as short-term computer models, we see showers still to come through the area currently in western Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia. But there are no severe thunderstorm warnings and nothing appears particularly intense. You may need your umbrella mid-to-late morning and we can’t rule out an embedded heavy storm as this activity passes by but the threat of severe weather seems low. And commuting for the next hour or two seems fine.

We’ll post another update around 9 am

5:45 am — So far, approaching showers and storms do not appear too intense but we’ll monitor through this morning

The complex of storms that developed Monday evening in the Ohio Valley—that we feared could be severe as it passes through the region—has not held together terribly well. Most of the activity associated with it, in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, is not severe at this time. Short-term models still indicate we should see some showers and storms come through this morning. We could still see some heavy downpours and it’s not out the question some storm activity is locally severe. But a widespread severe storm outbreak seems unlikely.

In terms of timing, there is one thin line of downpours passing north of the Beltway now that will exit quickly. Additional showers and storms may approach between 8 am and noon.

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of zero to 10.

3/10: Stormy start to test our Tuesday meeting.

  • Today: Stormy morning, partial pm sun, humid. Highs: 80-86.
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy, warm and muggy. Lows: 66-73.
  • Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, muggy, slight storm luck. Highs: 87-91.

A noisy narrative kicks off our Tuesday as potentially strong thunderstorms rumble through this morning. Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday through Friday but should be more isolated to scattered in nature, with mostly muggy heat and periods of sunshine. A late-week cold front opens the door to refreshing low humidity and a beautiful, cooler-than-normal holiday weekend.

Today (Tuesday): Strong thunderstorms early to mid morning could produce downpours and damaging winds. Consider timing your commute before or after these storms. Lingering showers or additional thunderstorms remain possible late morning until around noon. Rainfall could total around 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Could see partial afternoon sun with highs in the low to mid-80s and high humidity (dew points near 70). Winds from the north at about 5 to 10 mph, except gusty around storms. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Partly cloudy, muggy and warm, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Light winds from the east at about 5 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and instagram for the latest weather updates. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Mostly sunny and hotter with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Humidity is in the moderate range with two points in the middle 60s. Light breezes blow from the southeast at about 5 mph. Again, a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon to evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy and moderately muggy again as lows reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of isolated showers or a thunderstorm late at night. Confidence: Medium-High

Thursday should see mostly cloudy skies and a little less heat, with highs in the 80s along with moderate humidity amid scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Warm and muggy Thursday night, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms as lows range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium

friday starts on the muggy and cloudy side with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. But partly sunny skies could arrive by midday and in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Humidity should start to fall by later in the afternoon, thanks to a passing cold front. Friday night should turn mostly clear with lower humidity and lows ranging through the 60s. Confidence: Medium

Tea holiday weekend is looking like a perfect summer situation. Picture mostly sunny to sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday, with closer to normal middle 80s on Monday as partly sunny skies prevail. Humidity is comfortably low on Saturday and Sunday, with only a slight increase on Monday. Mostly clear on Saturday and Sunday nights, with lows in the 60s for the city, but outer suburbs should see cooler lows in the middle to upper 50s. Confidence: Medium

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